Very Grim Times for Politics in Uganda

The mess that is Uganda’s politics couldn’t have played out any better in the past week. Sadly, it is more likely than not that we shall sail further in the murky waters in the short and medium term as a country. The youthful elite in this country have been accused of leaving active politics to the old guard while preferring the arguably less messy corporate world. I’m compelled to think maybe they are justified considering the situation.

A fortnight ago, this column reported and went on to question the choice of Leader of opposition in parliament that was appointed by the FDC president, cautioning about the likely fallout in the party and other repercussions. On Wednesday 12^th, the new LoP together with the party president announced their new Shadow Cabinet. I remember reading through the list and wondering if “reviewing” opposition leadership in parliament meant the same thing as “reshuffling” them. Only a few people like the Shadow Attorney General and Defence Minister had retained their positions. Everybody else had been switched around while others were dropped in a move that the leadership described as ‘rebranding the party from militaristic ways’.

I was not shocked to read a few minutes later, that two MPs, Hon. Odonga Otto and Hon. Odo Tayebwa had already rejected their appointments citing lack of competence in the respective positions of appointment and not being consulted before hand. Mr. Odonga Otto had made it clear before that he was only interested in the coveted position of heading the Public Accounts Committee (PAC) and nothing else. While I appreciate that not everyone could get what they wanted, I think the new FDC leadership made mistakes of a fundamental magnitude that could further strain the already shaky confidence in their capabilities. Take for Instance, the appointment the Secretary General Ms. Alice Alaso to head PAC. Her interest in the LoP position notwithstanding, it was a ridiculous appointment. Alice has a background of a teacher and social worker as she clearly pointed out in her rather shocking rejection of the appointment as well. How is such a background supposed to make her competent to head PAC, a position that requires accounting and dealing with numbers and figures? This is one of the many examples that seem to point out that the appointments were not made on a basis of competence and ability to deliver but had other considerations, possibly ego-centric ones. The outgoing leader of opposition, a very strong member of the party and former candidate for the party presidency is understood to have declined any appointment to the shadow cabinet and preferred to go back to the back bench.

Kampala Woman MP, Nabillah Ssempala, who had criticized the appointment of Hon. Wafula Oguttu as LoP and earlier had allegations of an impending crossover to the ruling party hanging over her shoulder, seemed rather delighted after being appointed Shadow Minister for Information. She made a sudden U-turn and pledged to work for the party. All this disgruntlement, U-turns and rejections point us to one direction: the impending demise of FDC as the strongest opposition party in Uganda. I predicted a breakaway faction before the 2016 Elections but at this rate, it might be coming sooner than that. It is increasingly becoming clear that some members are in it for self-aggrandizement but also, that the new leadership’s rebranding campaign is backfiring quite fast.

Enter the NRM retreat in Kyankwanzi. The drama was unprecedented. A retreat that was to review the manifesto, track progress and churn a way forward ended up revolving around succession for the president. A lot of talk had been making rounds about the Prime Minister Mr. Amama Mbabazi habouring strong interests in the presidency for 2016. It all started with a carefully written and purportedly well researched article in The Independent Magazine last year that the Premier was doing serious mobilisation within and outside the party in preparation for his presidential bid. The premier initially denied the allegations but with time, constant pressure and unceasing debate on the issue from the media, he began to employ the softer response of contesting only if he is chosen by the party.

The President kept mum about the issue but as usual, he is always orchestrating something behind the scenes. The man doesn’t take any threat to his power lightly. The opposition knows that more than anybody else. The retreat has made known to us the carefully executed plan to ensure Mr. Mbabazi has no chance to contest against his boss. The so-called “Nanjing Group”, owing their name to the upscale hotel where the plan is alleged to have been hatched, led by youthful MP Evelyn Anite literally blackmailed the Premier into signing away his right to challenge the president. By making every MP sign an illegal document backing Museveni as the sole candidate in the upcoming election, the group has cut off any chances for anyone else to be a serious challenger. However undemocratic and ridiculous the action is, it has produced an effective tool to curb any opposition to the president from within the party. Who said we are a democratic country anyway? Democracy and rule of law in Uganda are just a sham. The past three elections in this country have always been just a norm with no effect on the status quo, especially the presidency, to the extent that about 48% of eligible voters didn’t bother to participate in the last election because there’s an increasing belief that their decisions can not cause change. So why would we expect the ruling party to use democratic means?

I feel sorry for Mr. Mbabazi if his ambitions are true but I feel sorrier for Uganda’s politics. With an opposition totally devoid of a clear ideology to drive Uganda out of the mess we have been in for the past nearly three decades of this presidency and with cracks all over their party structures, I shudder at the thought of five more years of NRM rule after 2016. These are very grim times for Uganda and the worst is yet to come.