NSSF should be made more useful to ordinary Ugandans

Last week, the Minister of Finance reappointed Mr. Godfrey Byarugaba for another term as Managing Director of NSSF, Geraldine Ssali as Deputy MD and a new Corporation Secretary was also appointed. For some of us who are constantly incensed with the political machinations in big government agencies, it was a relief to see a substantive appointment in almost a year.

NSSF has an immense potential to turn around the lives of ordinary Ugandans, but just like any ambitious project government attempts to undertake, the ghosts are quick to maul it down and frustrate it. MPs usually call for endless inquisitions and projects end up stalling or dying literally. Of course we need checks and balances in all systems because Uganda is not a country of angels. In fact our government seems to be infested with some people from hell who seem to have been taught corruption from the time they started school. But having investigated, inquired, probed and proved that there was no reasonable cause not to reappoint a man that has overseen the tremendous growth of NSSF into its multi trillion shillings portfolio, made a sound and profit making investment in UMEME shares and the first MD to have finished his term without going to jail, the Minister made the right choice in Byarugaba.  

However, the great potential at NSSF still stands underutilized and disappointing for a fund that pulls in over Shs 400bn annually. The continuous Inquisitions and investigations into the fund’s dealings almost every year seem to have created a sense of fear for making big investment deals and need to come to an end. Unsubstantiated allegations need to stop as well. Now, more than ever, we need to see NSSF taking Investment and valuable Corporate Social Responsibility seriously. The fund needs to play a leading role in Infrastructure development and value addition. Ugandans are not satisfied with a fund they get to hear about during commissions of Inquiry because having trillions of cash lying idle somewhere is too much a temptation for even the best human species, which partly explains the jail sentences dished out to former MDs. I believe Ugandans would instead prefer to interact regularly with what the fund is using their money for and to enjoy the benefits of their savings outside the increasing interest rates that they can only access after so many years, and for some, never at all.

Buying shares in other commercial entities and investing in real estate is a step in the right direction. But NSSF should do more. The money being borrowed by government to fund some of these infrastructure projects should be sourced from NSSF after a thorough assessment of economic viability, return on Investment and such other calculations. The fund should be championing safe water supply to the Karamoja region for example, as part of its Corporate Social Responsibility.

Of course CSR alone doesn’t sustain the growth of any organisation; which is why the fund should also seek lawful, profitable and responsible investments such as leading the cause for low cost housing projects in the greater Kampala region. Such investment decisions must be made purely on business sense. The fund has the potential to stimulate high economic growth through investment in national priorities, basically infrastructure. It should be partnering with Kampala Capital City Authority through debt instruments such as municipal bonds, to provide cash for opening up and reconstructing the blocked drainage system in the city and fixing roads.

NSSF has the cash to fund a state of the art hospital facility in the country based on sound investment terms, in partnership with private players. This culture of Ugandans seeking medical care abroad and some being unfortunate to die there is ridiculous in this day and age. Not when we have trillions stashed away gathering dust in the fund’s accounts. The fund should be exploring and piloting a medical insurance scheme for its subscribers in partnership with the available service providers. This is the kind of day to day interaction with people’s savings that I’m talking about. The kind of value addition into people’s lives that the fund needs to explore besides just paying interest.

If the fund has the cash to finance major infrastructure such as power dams, bridges and roads, why are we borrowing money we don’t need to pay for things we can pay for ourselves?

Our parliament needs to explore the legalities involved and streamline the laws already in place to provide for this cause and put an end to this runaway borrowing that further delays our economic growth. Over to you Madame Speaker and MD Byarugaba.

The Case for Photovoltaic Glass Technology for Curtain Walls on Buildings

Modern building designs are constantly seeking intervention concepts and innovations that meet Environmental Sustainability, Low Life cycle cost, durability, safety, performance (quality) and sometimes reusability. Architects and other professionals in the industry are continuously on the lookout for new technologies that can meet these requirements on both new and existing structures.

Most modern commercial and residential structures springing up in cities across the world consist of Curtain walling facades. This is basically an Aluminium frame in filled with glass, stone, metal or any other suitable material as per the Architect’s desire. Our central focus should be on the usually large expanse of the infill material, be it glass or whatever else. This large surface is usually exposed and should ideally be resistant to adverse weather conditions. But a little curiosity will reveal to you that sometimes it’s not bad to think of the negative side of things.

In a bid to explore what could happen in case the façade was not weather resistant, researchers discovered a fascinating and very brilliant concept. What if the large free surface was instead out to use?  And then Photovoltaic glass technology was born into building industry. Curtain walling has always held a certain fascination with Solar panel manufacturers. The large free surface could be used to generate energy from the sun and use it to power the same buildings or even collect it and export it to the grid. 

Alexander Forbes  Insurance Headquaters, Johannesburg,South Africa. (Cladding in Standing Seam technique)

The world has been advocating for renewable energy technologies since way before the start of this century. This innovation was one of those outstanding achievements by scientists that deserve medals. I mean, take a quick look at all the high-rise buildings in your city and imagine all of them harvesting their own energy and powering their own operations within and outside their premises. Imagine how much money would be saved on power generation projects to satisfy the requirements of people living and working in the cities.

How much money would maintenance managers and building owners save on the life cycle cost of running the buildings during its service life? How much would we save the environment the adverse effects of building power dams on each all-season river in the country?

It’s time to put those high walls and roofs to use. Let’s embrace a comprehensive system of Photovoltaic glass technology for our buildings to increase sustainability in the industry. In fact, let’s also set up solar farms to harvest solar power and connect it to the national grid. It’s a shame that with our climate and the existence of such technologies, countries like my Uganda in this Century still has only 28% of electricity coverage out of a population of nearly 40 Million people. And we dream of being a middle income country in a few years to come. This statistic is one of the deterrences but the technology could be a catalyst.

Credit: Construction Review Magazine 

The Idea of an Apolitical Council of Elders

We are living in very interesting political times here in Uganda. Tabloids have been awash with stories relating to the sacking of former Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi by his erstwhile close ally, the President. Reports from the NRM parliamentary caucus meeting on Monday indicate that the president further intends to torpedo Mr. Mbabazi from his Secretary General’s seat at the party as well. Most people who understand the President’s paranoia especially in relation to his power are not surprised by these developments. It was silently understood that it was just a matter of time before Mr. Mbabazi’s perceived or real ambitions would land him on the knife edge.

However, the graceful and calm demeanor with which he has taken the sacking and the series of events that have followed it has left many wondering what the self-proclaimed ‘super Minister’ is made of. Many who have worked with him previously have mentioned calm and calculative to be his quintessential approach to everything. Commentators, analysts and even opposition MPs have spoken favourably about the ‘smart and very intelligent’ former minister who has held many portfolios in cabinet and security agencies. If this is indeed true, then it would be a shame to lose such a man because of his aspirations to be the fountain of honour in this country.

My thinking is that, however much it is the prerogative of the President to appoint and disappoint people in cabinet and many other government agencies at will, some people who have diligently served their country and have a good track record should be retained in advisory capacity as a Statutory Council of Elders to advise the country on certain major issues. Let’s be honest; Intelligence, dedication, hard work and Integrity are not qualities that can be attributed to many in Uganda’s political circles.

So, why do we need this Council?

Uganda has had many good laws, programs, projects and policies that have simply slipped into silent death during implementation stage. (Take a look at NAADS, Bona bagagawale, Railway Projects, PRDP, The valley dam projects et al.) Many reasons could be attributed to this but key among them are the fact that thorough consultations and feasibility studies are not carried out prior to establishment to plug the loopholes, and of course corruption. This council of elders would be charged with assessing the viability of such development programs, reviewing policy frameworks, advising on them during implementation and initiating others that they deem necessary to the country’s development agenda.

How do we choose the members of this council?

There must be specific criteria to be followed in choosing these members. In a bid to avoid political interference, we need an independent nominating agency contracted to dig deep and undertake a thorough process to come up with these members. Candidates must have a track record of hard work and dedicated service in private, public sector, civil society or international bodies. In the event that one is nominated while in public service and they choose to take up the assignment, they would be required to resign their positions. The nominated members must be vetted by the Parliamentary Appointments Committee and approved before they take on their assignments. This would act as a secondary sieve to ensure that we get the finest people to this council.

How long would they serve?

To avoid complacency and ensure continuity in this council, I would suggest that a council member serve a minimum of one five year term and a maximum of two terms. We achieve this by employing the rotational policy of such advisory boards of several fortune 500 companies where the longest serving half of the board is retired and replaced every five years.

Replace the Presidential advisors

Of course with this council, we wouldn’t need the hundreds of presidential advisors meeting once a month to be ‘advised’ instead by the president, driving free cars and taking home millions for either ‘misadvising’ the president or having their advice ignored. The council would take up the role of advising the president, cabinet and government agencies to steer this country forward without all the politics and intrigue that comes with holding a government position to which one is appointed and serves at the mercy of the president. The security of their tenure must be well protected and shielded from political interference.

Who would I choose?

For the council to be effective, it has to consist of a lean number (maybe 20) and much diversified lot. If I was asked to choose off head, I would nominate the following people; Ezra Suruma, Godber Tumushabe, Mugisha Muntu, Fred Muhumuza, Miria Matembe, Winnie Byanyima, James Ogoola, Allen Kagina, Patrick Bitature, Julia Sebutinde, Martin Aliker, Betty Bigombe, Amanya Mushega, Tumusiime Mutebile and the Intelligent Amama Mbabazi. You can add other names to the list.

Let’s face it. To move this country forward, we need more than what we have in our current civil service. Uganda would be losing a lot of brain power, expertise and experience to help in policy formulation and implementation if we keep letting whoever falls out with the regime fade into oblivion. Some of these fine brains need to be fully tapped because, clearly, the ones we are tapping are not helping much.  

How realistic is a Cable Car System in Kampala city?

Some time back, KCCA ran an advert inviting consultants to conduct studies on piloting a cable car system in Kampala city. Media reports indicate that feasibility studies for a pilot cable car system from Kawempe to the new park and to Makindye have been conducted though their results have not been made public yet.

A KCCA Supplement that appeared in the New Vision Newspaper of 30^th April 2014 states that, “The system can be installed easily, provides unique ride experiences to passengers and are reliable”. I would like to respectfully challenge this statement because in my opinion, it is not all true.

First of all, a cable car system requires a huge infrastructure input. This is in relation to installation of access lifts, ramps, vehicles and cables. In addition to the initial cost of this infrastructure, there’s the cost of maintenance of cables on a regular basis as they get worn out fast when used frequently.

Secondly, the reliability of a cable car system is majorly premised on a reliable power supply. Operating cable cars would require a cheap and reliable power supply which unfortunately is not available in Kampala. Our power is neither cheap nor reliable. Uganda ranks among the top countries with the highest cost of electricity and is still grappling with frequent power outages. This means that unless KCCA intends to use power from another service provider other than UMEME, which I don’t think, it is not sustainable to design and install a cable car system in the city when these problems are still apparent. Otherwise passengers may get stranded for hours in the air mid journey due to power outages.

More so, Kampala experiences traffic congestions during peak hours which fall in the morning as people head to work and evening hours as they return home. Normally, during this time, passenger behavior indicates that all people care about is to get to where they are going and to get there fast. The ‘unique riding experience’ that KCCA is hoping to achieve with cable cars is not a priority during these hours.

Cable cars are designed to transport passengers up and down hills and across valleys. Though they can be used in relatively flat and slightly undulating terrain, their efficiency is reduced and they require more traction which might have to be provided by increasing the power supply. This of course has a ripple effect on the cost of running the system.

Furthermore, Cable cars generally have a low capacity carrying up to a maximum of about 8 to 10 passengers at a time in order to avoid too much weight on the suspended cables. Such a mode of transport cannot be a reasonable replacement for 14-seater matatus that KCCA is planning to ban from the city.

Finally, there is the issue of stages and flexibility in route selection. The cable car system requires braking towers at each stage for people to alight and others enter.  Since it is not possible to have these towers constructed in the middle of town where almost every inch of land is occupied by a building, the system may face a challenge of having to drop passengers further away from their destinations which will be an inconvenience to them.

Public transportation planning is a complicated task, especially since over the years many systems have evolved and grown beyond their original designs. New additions to transportation systems are expensive, and building these additions is often disruptive to existing systems and/or city structures. Each new system must be carefully planned. Population density, employment density, prospects for growth, per capita income, car ownership, and life cycle cost are some of the factors that must be considered when planning public transportation systems. Past operating practices and procedures, coverage of the current system, fare prices, land use, street patterns, settlement patterns and availability or possibility of off-street transit should also be taken into account.

However, the overriding aims that the planners should have in mind while planning include maximization of ridership (capacity), efficiency and reliability of operations, potential to foster new residential and commercial developments, cost of construction and maintenance. No simple formula can determine which system to employ or where it should be built but the above factors go a long way towards making the right choice.

While planning for three million people in the city, high capacity modes of public transport should be introduced to solve traffic congestion alongside reasonable regulation of entry of private vehicles into the city.

My thinking is that a rapid bus transport system, speed trains and trams are more realistic options and better suited for Kampala than cable cars.

Let us explore a National Youth Service program in Uganda.

In the early 2000’s, a phrase was coined by some ‘intellectuals’ and it became common place. We were told to be job creators not job seekers. The days of finishing school and getting straight into the work environment or even being recruited while at university were behind us. The capacity of both the public and private sectors to absorb graduates had reduced and kept on a downward spiral. This implied that the competition for jobs was increasing and the chances of every qualified graduate getting employed were reducing significantly. Growth in most productive sectors was either stagnating or reducing. Cooperative societies that had for long driven the agriculture sector were collapsing one by one. The cost of production was increasing yet the returns on investment were not so encouraging. Coffee and cotton exports reduced significantly.

Most Parastatals had just been privatized and many of them were still restructuring and struggling to make profits. Meanwhile, Universities and technical institutions were churning out ever increasing theoretical degree and diploma wielding graduates into a job market that was constantly diminishing and is now almost nonexistent. Economic growth rates were reducing and at best stagnating in the subsequent years. Today, the competition for employment has reached unprecedented levels. To many youth now, graduation marks the start of a very uncertain future. The kind of future that makes them vulnerable and willing to do anything, even criminal, to make ends meet. With a youth unemployment level of about 83 percent, we have a time bomb on our hands. 

Last year, Kenya passed a law that makes it mandatory for all high school graduates to enroll in a National Youth service program as they await university enrollment, aimed at giving young people vocational training, empowerment and instilling patriotism amid economic and security challenges. South Africa, Nigeria and Jamaica are among the other countries with programs of a similar nature. While our ‘genius’ ministers and law makers mull over the idea of passing a law that forces us to be patriotic, other countries are actually doing something that instill it naturally. 

A national youth service program that combines training in specific career skills, re-socialization and work experience to develop positive attitudes and values among participants in the areas of self, work place, community and nation, as well as provide opportunities and orientation for their entrance into the work force is a much more effective tool to instill patriotism than a law that forces it down our throats. This program would be different from internships as it would emphasize community service and civic duty with participants rendered a small stipend to cater for transport and lunch costs. To minimize this cost, participants would be allocated placement in their home districts in organisations and local government departments that match their qualifications and career preferences. 

In Mexico, community service is compulsory for all Mexican university students. These students serve 480 hours of voluntary service during the course of a four year undergraduate education. The aim is to build solidarity among youth and encourage a sense of collaboration in community development. The government sponsored National Youth Commission in South Africa runs a national youth service program that enlists youth to fight against the spread of HIV/AIDS and reduce youth unemployment. In South America, Chile runs a competitive selection civil service program for university graduates with the goal of reducing rural poverty. Lawyers, engineers, medical practitioners and other carefully selected professionals are chosen after graduation to serve in rural areas for a period of 13 months. This approach offers a three pronged solution as the graduates gain the much needed experience, take services to the poor population in hard to reach areas and build working relationships with local people. 

Just like any program, a youth service would require quality control to be effective. Participants would have to be periodically monitored by service coordinators, get involved in career guidance sessions, reinforcement of civic values and prudent work ethos. After a period of one year in this service, the youth would be well equipped with the skills to enter the job market raising the quality of the labour force, and the rest would be enterprising enough to identify a niche and create their own practice.

The last issue would be funding for this program. Most countries that run such programs allocate funding from the consolidated fund. However, a new approach with contributions from the private sector and development partners can be explored to kick start this program in Uganda. Coordination would be conducted within a framework that includes the Ministries of Education, Public Service and the Private Sector Foundation of Uganda. If we are to address the ills of unemployment, avert the damage occasioned by a theoretical education system and drive a skills development agenda in this country, a national youth service program is something we must consider for university and high school graduates.

Can Africa leapfrog the carbon energy age? - Opinion - Al Jazeera English

Julian Popov is a journalist, consultant, and a former environment minister in the last Bulgarian interim government.

Some see Africa as the land of poverty, others as the continent with the fastest economic growth. That growth, and getting out of poverty, need energy. And more energy, common wisdom suggests, means more fossil fuels - coal, oil and gas. This is why climate change policy makers do not look much at Africa when it comes to pushing for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. They assume that in Africa the emissions should go up, and up, and up before they start going down. Look at China, India or Turkey and you get the picture.

There is, however, something that sets Africa apart from China, India or Turkey - its profound energy backwardness. Out of her one billion population, nearly 600 million have no access to an electricity grid. And Africa is the only continent where that number is expected to rise to reach 700 million by 2030.

Africa is also big. Its map can comfortably house the maps of US, India, China, Germany, France, Spain and a few other countries. And it is also sparsely populated. There are fewer people living in the entire African continent than in India, but India is 10 times smaller than Africa. Building electricity grids across such distances to reach families that live on $4-5 a day does not make sense. Getting the power grid to remote communities can be a costly venture and the returns are highly unlikely to justify the investment. For a long time, the poor communities will remain too poor to attract necessary power grid investment.

Something else, however, is happening in Africa that could change all that. Off grid solar energy is rapidly spreading. In the last few years over 7 million off-grid Africans have replaced their kerosene lamps with solar lights. This might be just 1 percent of the off-grid African population, but it is on a scale sufficient to introduce a technology that could disrupt the expected path of development. The reasons are at least four.

First, the change to the family budget that a solar light brings is significant. According to SolarAid, one of the organisations introducing solar lights to Africa, by replacing kerosene with solar power LED light in Tanzania, typically you can save more than a dollar a week. This is a significant amount of money for the 48 percent of the sub-Saharan people that live on less than $1.25 a day.

Second, solar power can be expanded and connected. You can get one panel and you will replace a kerosene lamp. Get two and you will be able to charge your mobile phone. Add another one and you can have a radio. With one more you might have a computer or a TV. In other words, the solar generation could add to your life different consumer products. And you can also team up with a neighbour and build a small local grid.

Third, the technological advances are staggering. The LED light uses five to 10 times less energy than the old incandescent light. Chinese, Spanish and German subsidies have turned photovoltaic panels into a commodity with a rapidly falling price. What looked 10 years ago like a rich government's game now is simply cheap. The cost of solar power is falling below new nuclear or gas generated power and even below coal, if you care to include into the electricity price the cost of all the environmental and health damage that coal causes.

Fourth, solar, and other renewable energy technologies do not need the hugely expensive power infrastructure required to bring the electricity generated by a nuclear reactor or a coal power block 2,000 kilometres to a poor African village.

Put these four reasons together and you will see that the traditional centralised power grid structure will lag far behind the economic and technological development of Africa. In other words, the off-grid electricity network will grow faster than the centralised energy economy. The centralised power grid economy will never be able to catch up with the faster growing off-grid economy.

By the time you secure financing for the 2,000 km grid to a remote village, it will have the LED lights at home and in school, chargers for mobiles phones, power for TVs and computers and mobile access to high quality education through the MOOC (mass online open courses) system.

And carbon free energy by no means stops at photovoltaic generation. Large parts of Africa offer excellent wind conditions. Micro hydro generation can also provide power that does not require a large power grid. There are already countries in Africa, like Rwanda, that are looking at a 100 percent renewable electricity option by 2020. According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance, this would be a much more economic option for Rwanda than relaying on fossil fuels.

If we want to help Africa, and the rest of the world, we should support the scaling up of a natural trend that would help Africa to leapfrog the carbon energy age. Last year, US President Barack Obama promised more than $7bn for the Power Africa programme. The money will most likely go into grids and conventional energy projects. Bad choice. But that could not stop Africa moving fast into the carbon free energy world. European political leaders should support the acceleration of this this natural economic development.

Africa never managed to build a proper telephone cable network. And it will never need it. The continent has nearly 500 million mobile connections and only 12 million fixed telephone lines. Something similar could happen with energy.

The Devil lies in the New Journalism Regulations

Just when you think we cannot sink any deeper into the murky waters of politicking, Uganda surprises you with a rude awakening. The introduction of the new fees for Journalists under the Press and Journalists Regulations 2014 is a rather unpleasant reminder of how far this government is willing to go to curtail basic freedoms and rights in order to further entrench itself and impose its presence on us. Under these new regulations, a journalist will be required to pay UgShs.200,000 for a practicing certificate. In addition to that, pay UgShs.50,000 for that certificate to be entered in the register for journalists. That is not all. The practicing certificate will have to be renewed annually at a few of not less than UgShs.100,000 and that excludes the UgShs.30,000 for an enrollment certificate. Now, just how ridiculous is that?

Imagine a young journalist fresh from campus. How is he/she supposed to come up with all that cash to be able to start practicing their profession? Even to the already practicing journalists, these fees are too high considering their salaries which average around UgShs.800,000 in mainstream media.

Leaving the financials aside; onto the rights concerns, these regulations directly jeopardise the freedom of conscience and expression in our Constitution. Article 29(1)(a) states: “Every person shall have the right to freedom of speech and expression which shall include freedom of the press and other media.” The press and media practitioners are what one would call journalists. When these journalists have to seek permission to practice from the government, which government retains the right to grant, deny, revoke and renew such permission every year, I am not sure that will still be termed as ‘freedom of the press and media’.

The media sets the agenda for discussion in the whole country on a daily basis. They search for a story, break it, confirm it, give details and ensure that it gets the necessary attention it requires. Though our media in particular has often been guilty of sensationalizing serious issues and quickly jumping from one story to another without fully exhausting and debating one to any logical conclusion, they are still responsible to a large extent, for keeping the government in check and exposing the excesses committed in the corridors of power. Allowing the government to have power to determine who plays the watchdog role and who doesn’t simply defeats the whole idea of an independent media which is key to democratic governance that we claim to subscribe to. There is no guarantee that journalists deemed critical to government and the ‘big men’ will not be denied practicing certificates and/or even whole media houses gradually incapacitated in a bid to deny a platform to such journalists.

The other proposal of forcing private media houses to dedicate a mandatory amount of time to government programs is also as absurd as can be. Besides the obvious wrongful act of dictating programming in a privatized sector, it could disorganize the viewer-ship/listener-ship who usually get accustomed to a certain set and type of programming. This could have serious implications for the private media houses in terms of tilting the easily impressionable (and easily turned off) listeners and viewers. It is common sense that if you are doing something good, the attention will come naturally. You would not need to seek it. Therefore this vain attempt by the government to regulate media attention goes back to what they are doing (or not doing) especially in the areas of service provision.

The media in this country gives a lot of attention to the key sectors especially health, agriculture and education. The problem is that there are often few or no good stories to report there. Certainly those championed by the government are ever diminishing over the years. These sectors have been left to ‘go to the dogs’ and the role of the media is to report it as it is. So, attempting to force the media to paint a rosy picture or else deny them licenses/certificates is indeed absurd. The government should concentrate on service delivery and they will get all the media attention they deserve.

These new regulations come in as old wine in a new skin. After several efforts to gag the media by threating some journalists into self-censorship, closing down media houses, bribing and enticing them with juicy advertising deals, this is yet a new phase of ensuring control over the media. And it is heading towards dangerous levels.

There is a legislation craze going on in this country. Some of these selfish individuals in government think we should have laws to regulate how we dress, how we sleep and with whom, how we convene in our community groups, and more recently, to demonstrate our ‘love for our country’. Now they are slowly creeping into our professions starting with the journalists. We need to collectively reject these inverted and ill-conceived efforts that can yield no good for us or for the future of this country. Instead of the government defining itself in opposition to media freedom, they can choose to affirm the aspirations they both hold in common. We can stand tall without standing on someone and we can victors without having victims.

The Power Of Being A 'Nobody' | LinkedIn By John Hope Bryant

The Power Of Being A 'Nobody' | LinkedIn

The Gradual Mortality of Uganda’s 9th Parliament

When the 9^th Parliament started its term early 2011, a lot of promises were made. A new seemingly sober-minded Speaker, the first as a lady, was elected and everyone seemed optimistic for a brand new start. This new Parliament exuded an aura of departure from the mediocrity we had in the previous Parliament to getting actual work done. By work I mean the three core duties of Parliament which are; Legislation, Representation and Oversight.

The Oil Bills were debated expeditiously, corruption allegations in the sector investigated, Cabinet appointees vetted with incompetent ones rejected, and the usual bullying of the executive was faced with a stern backbone. The Parliament was applauded for their efforts in checking impunity, bribery, and corruption. The Speaker was viewed as the protector of potential oil resources and siding with the people. She had championed causes that saw both opposition and ruling party members of Parliament, civil society and some sections of voters move her closer to the top in “the queue” for the country’s presidency.

Then something happened. Something some of us are still trying to figure out. Suddenly the Parliament’s back bone was not as hard to bend as we thought. First, a female ministerial appointee, who had initially been denied confirmation on academic grounds, got confirmed mysteriously. Then we saw the notorious Public Order Management Bill, which is primarily to crack down on political dissent, rammed through parliament. A serving Military General was appointed, vetted and approved as if to make sure this law is implemented, among others. The parliamentarians were not done yet.

They used our money to build themselves a parking lot worth 36 billion shillings and are waiting to install security equipment worth 16.3 billion. Then on top of their 20 million emoluments per month, they used almost a billion shillings of tax payers’ money to buy themselves an iPad each and procure lessons on how to use them, for two months. Their continuous plunge into trivialities doesn’t seem to have a limit. As last year came to a close, they hurriedly passed two ridiculous bills in a fresh attempt to legislate against people’s lifestyle and what they do in the privacy of their bedrooms. Of all the issues facing this country in the political, democratic and governance arenas, one wonders where the priorities of these legislators lie.

Word in the corridors of parliament is pointing to another plan of yet two other incredibly asinine bills. The first is to postpone the upcoming 2016 elections, and the other, to force us to love our country. The fusion of the state and the NRM party has forced on us the very unfortunate inheritance of non-thinkers and intellectually challenged individuals charged with running our country. Patriotism is not something you legislate about. As a government, if you provide the services and execute your duties as you are supposed to, people will naturally love their country. Once you are elected into public office, an implied social contract between you and the voters comes into existence. This contract goes along the lines of guaranteed service provision as long as people pay their taxes. With this contract not being fulfilled, I wonder how they intend to test the level of patriotism in an individual and decide who does not love their country.

On the proposal to postpone elections, Article 1(4) of Uganda’s constitution states that, ‘The people shall express their will and consent on who shall govern them and how they should be governed, through regular, free and fair elections of their representatives or through referenda.’ The interpretation of this article surely includes decisions like postponing elections. Before embarking on a path of multi-party democracy in 2005, a referendum was organised and people had to make the decision themselves through the ballot. The matter of postponing elections is as important if not more. Our parliamentarians have not given us confidence that they take their social contract seriously. Not in the past year or so. They seem to put their individual interests ahead of ours. Democracy cannot truly deliver for all of its citizens if half or the entire population remains under-represented in the political arena.

Statistics show that at least 67% of incumbent MPs do not return to parliament in the subsequent term. It is no secret that due to the high level of monetization of elections in this country, a large number of our legislators are heavily indebted even after almost three years in the August House. A story is told of two parliamentarians who collect as low as $25 from their monthly salaries after loan deductions.  With such a lot, I am highly suspicious that the attempt to extend their term in office is actually to extend their loan-repayment capabilities. After all, with only 33% poised to come back in the next term, one cannot guarantee their ability to meet their financial obligations.

However badly they need more time, it is not their prerogative. Of course in Uganda they can do it and get away with it. That does not make it right. I offer two alternatives to go about the current crisis in the ‘right’ way. The first; Let the current government legislate itself out of power and create a transitional government. This transitional government should include ‘politically neutral’ technocrats chosen from civil society, representatives from all registered political parties, religious institutions and international expert observers from the EAC secretariat, the UN and AU. All Ugandans who get involved in this transitional government would not be eligible to contest for public office in the next 15 years. This transitional government would be charged with overhauling the Electoral Commission and revising the way it is constituted, amending the constitution to reduce the powers of the presidency that give him an unfair advantage and influence over otherwise independent institutions, and organizing free and fair elections in a period of not more than two years. This is the most plausible and sustainable way to navigate through this murky period of transition and mistrust without possible bloodshed. The MPs can deal with their financial woes in their own time.  

Alternatively, organise a referendum and let Ugandans decide whether they want to extend the current term of their leaders for more years. This is probably very unattractive to our MPs considering the very little they have delivered on the social contract they have with their electorate. If we were to judge them on that premise, most of them would perform miserably, which probably explain the high attrition rate of their numbers every term. I really hope they can listen to the voice of reason. They have already done enough damage. Let them exit gracefully.

The Need for Civic Education on Democracy, Elections and Political leadership in Uganda

Our political leaders have been quoted several times in the media, especially when their potentials have been called into question, saying that we have always had the freedom to change every five years in the form of elections. I have always argued that the ritualistic periodic Elections in this country and other like countries have little or no consequence on the country’s direction if the citizens have been deprived of the power to cause change through them. There is not a shred of doubt in my mind that majority of Ugandans are not informed enough to bear potential of making the right political choices during elections. Democracy is only one of the many ingredients required in a free society for holistic growth and development. It gives people the right to vote but it does not guarantee freedom or the trust in the people to make the right choice, much less so in a society of the gullible and illiterate.

An old adage goes that, “communities get the leaders they deserve.” Whether you believe this or not depends on your perception of the system through which leaders are chosen. In our case, democracy gives people the right to vote but how they use that right and the outcome is left to freedom. This freedom can only be guaranteed through an independent legal system that is not readily influenced by periodic voting. Elections can only be an agent of freedom if they give people meaningful voting choices and ensures that they have unbiased and undistorted information necessary to make an informed choice that is in their best interest. For instance, a free and fair election is not only about freedom to vote and the knowledge of how to cast a vote but also about a participatory process where voters engage in independent public debate and have sufficient knowledge about the parties, policies, candidates and the election process itself. This engagement must be moderated based on the specific target group characteristics. Only then can we trust that voters will make informed choices. 

Unfortunately, this ingredient of civic education is lacking in this country. A population of low intellect is simply incapable of making beneficial long term decisions. People base on all sorts of petty issues like party colours, cash handouts, material possessions et al., all of which do not reflect the capabilities of an individual to lead them in the right direction and represent their interests. The voters we have here are irrational, highly uninformed about political issues especially relating to the economy, and have a strong bias about the few issues on which they are fairly knowledgeable. They are not ‘adequately educated’ to boost their ability to foresee the betterment of their communities and therefore, I argue, are unable to cast a vote to that effect. Simplistic promises such as financial help or jobs have previously been used to lure ordinary voters. Some have exchanged a solid five-year term for as little as a bar of soap and kilogram of sugar. 

Politicians have been very consistent in taking advantage of the immediate needs of the poor ordinary voters, their lack of rationality and poor education. Instead of advancing ideology, they compete in cash, material handouts and public relations tactics. They focus their energies on pointing out the faults of their opponents instead of advancing alternative courses of development and economic growth. This is why the opposition political parties have failed to coin and forward an effective message that resonates with the wider populous. Even the elites who understand what has failed with the current government do not see any of the opposition parties as worthy alternatives. 

We need to go back to the drawing board. Civic education at the grass roots is most crucial for citizens to understand their role in shaping their destiny and that of their country. The idea of genuine democracy can only be achieved of we can trust first, that people understand where they want to go, and second, that they can make that choice of who to lead them there without being unduly influenced. With the current system, decentralization has not been fully utilized to strengthen good governance, widen democratic participation and to promote democratic accountability right from the local level to the top. After ritualistic and uninformed voting, citizens are unable to monitor their leaders and to demand accountability for the entire length of the electoral term. Low levels of civic education imply limited opportunities to learn about governance processes including the roles of leaders and citizens in a democratic system. Couple that with the limited interaction with leaders who seem too busy caucusing in their parties, and effective political participation becomes impossible on the part of the citizens. 

We must empower our civil society to play an effective role in conducting civic education from the local level upwards. Citizens must be empowered and educated on the tenets of democracy, good governance and accountability together with their specific roles in this process and those of their elected leaders. Only then can we expect and trust that election results truly represent the ‘informed will’ of the people. Else, even abolishing rigging will not earn us genuine democracy and the governance we desire to steer us in the right direction. 

As we work on this holistic approach systematically, there is no harm in having the recent electoral reforms demanded by the opposition politicians and civil society for starters. They include; a new Independent Electoral commission, a new voters’ register, Keeping Security organs out of elections, No diversion of public funds to finance NRM, Transparent demarcation of electoral areas, Freedom to assemble and organize, Participatory selection of presiding officers, Participatory processing of electoral materials, Integrity of the tally Centre and Honest and transparent adjudication of presidential election disputes. These embody a very good start.

“New” Lessons for the West, from “Old” Uganda

Uganda has received a lot of stick especially from the West in recent weeks due to its stand on the Gay Issue. There was outrage in Europe and the Americas shortly before and after the President assented to the Anti-Homosexuality Law in front of local and International journalists. News outlets carried it as breaking news; Human Rights Watch denounced it while Western leaders appeared to be competing for space to express their dissent and issue threats. Some threats were actually executed. Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden and Norway announced publicly that they had cut their aid support to Uganda. The US announced a review of its $400M aid to the Health sector. Having noticed that it would put a lot of lives at risk, create bad publicity and prompt Ugandans to question their motives for the aid in the first place, the US became clever. They utilized their influence as its largest donor and went through the World Bank to do their billing. $90M in additional loan funding for the Uganda Health Systems Strengthening Project was suspended. Ugandans overwhelmingly responded by supporting their government’s decision even more as they went all over social media declaring that ‘we do not need aid.’ The finance minister was quoted last week as well saying the same. By trying to rally Ugandans against the populist action of their government, donor countries achieved the exact opposite.  The west has been in bed with this government for a long time but they still seem to get a few things wrong. So, here are a few ‘new’ lessons to refresh their mind in case they had forgotten.

Uganda is NOT a democracy.

One does not need to ask a Ugandan today whether this country is democratic. You just need to watch the decisions and manoeuvres made by our leaders in any single week of your choice in a year. The evidence is overwhelming. From appointing a serving military officer into cabinet role, and party card holders as Justices, to pushing unconstitutional legislation through parliament and curtailing the freedoms of opposition/ dissenting leaders, using the army to intimidate voters and outright voter bribery, the regime seeks to further impose itself on Ugandans. The people under the impression that we have a democracy here are delusional. Citizens are powerless to cause change through ritualistic and constantly rigged elections against a military regime that increasingly seems to have outlived its very few merits. Very few government policies and decisions can one find to reflect the true will of the people, but instead are construed to certain individuals’ interests. We are just hostages in a regime that cares only about perpetuating their stay in power. Western governments have been complicit in supporting, defending and promoting these manifest illegalities since 1986. Presidents, Ambassadors, Secretaries of State, all cheered on Museveni as one in the “new breed” of leaders and turned a blind eye to the injustices here. The lesson is; you cannot pick and choose which rights to advocate for and which ones to ignore.

We don’t really care much about rights

If you had been attentive in the past few years, you would know that rights are not such a big deal here. The right of free speech and assembly was scrapped last year through the colonial era Public Order Management Law. Just before then, the right to privacy had been removed through the Interception of Communications Law, otherwise known as the Phone tapping Law that was passed in the previous parliament. Journalists and activists get arrested, for expressing dissenting views on air and in print. Newspapers get closed for exposing government secrets.  In fact, some opposition people don’t even have the right to leave their homes on certain days. When we tried to refuse the imposition of these laws on us, the west did not support us. Certainly, they were not as loud as they are about the gays. So Ugandans had to accept the fact that they are on their own. Therefore there was little will to fight for Gay rights here. After all, we all do not fully enjoy our rights at all.

We wrote the constitution, we can change it

The other day, the president was quoted in the media saying, “We wrote the constitution. We can change it.” In other words, if the constitution stands in the way of getting what he wants, it can be amended. Need I say more? What he says is law in this country. That’s why despite all the Anti-corruption laws and agencies we have, no one gets prosecuted if the president does not allow it. He will even go to the extent of paying for defence lawyers and bail money for his suspect ‘friends’ if he hasn't ordered his cadre judges to throw out the case. 

 While we grappled through all this, the West continued to support him. Far reaching military, diplomatic and financial support kept pouring in as if to patronize the ordinary Ugandans. Despite continuous warnings from domestic human rights activists, political commentators and analysts that this regime is a corrupt and militaristic one, Western governments have been willing accomplices in the steady erosion of the rights of Ugandans. And I do not buy the argument that the US ambassador advances, that different circumstances call for different approaches. Rights are not absolute but they certainly are universal and must be advocated for in the same breadth. Indeed, the passing of the Anti-Homosexuality Act depicts a nation that lacks democracy, and has an entrenched practice of notorious disregard for the protection of fundamental human rights.

Washington and Europe need to learn to look beyond their own selfish interests and posturing and keep people’s ideals and rights as priorities while dealing with their governments. Such is the kind of interaction that builds partnerships that endure and transcend the transitory interests of a particular head of state. But if they continue to put certain rights up for bargain and pretend that others are non-negotiable, the results are what we see in Uganda today. Autocrats like our own will choose to call their bluff and innocent citizens will be left to suffer the brunt of severed partnerships and suspended aid. 

Remembering the importance of ideals doesn’t mean that autocrats should always be ignored or ostracised. One must deal with the world as it is with the understanding that there are going to be limits to the good we can do and the bad that we can prevent. But to maximize the positive influence, the west should never forget that all people around the world share a common desire for freedom and respect for their rights. Therefore there should never be rights that ‘must’ be respected and those on which we are willing to compromise.

Why do we Ugandans, have our priorities wrong?

Uganda made international headlines again this week. Not for launching a major project that is the first of its kind in sub-Saharan Africa or eliminating government bureaucracy to enhance opportunity and unlock funding into major income generating activities, but for passing two naïve and discriminatory laws against sections of people in the society. This is probably a good time for me to clearly state that I am strongly against the promotion, recruitment or open exhibitionism of homosexuality, but I also do not support the idea of regulating what two consenting adults prefer to do in private regardless of their sexual orientation. I also have nothing but contempt for anyone who thinks they should dictate how a woman should dress. This unfortunate attempt to impose radical moralism on unwilling people is what I see enshrined in the two infamous laws; The Anti-Pornography Law and the Anti-Homosexuality Law. 

Article 21(1) of the Constitution of Uganda, the Supreme law of the land states that; “All persons are equal before and under the law in all spheres of political, economic, social and cultural life and in every other respect and shall enjoy equal protection of the law.” It goes on to say in clause 2 of the same article that, “Without prejudice to clause (1) of this article, a person shall not be discriminated against on the grounds of sex, race, colour, ethnic origin, tribe, birth, creed or religion, social or economic standing, political opinion or disability.” This article demands of the government to not only commit but actually uphold and protect the rights of all Ugandans without discrimination.

With all the problems Uganda is facing at this time in form of youth unemployment to the tune of 84%, an ailing and depressing health sector, a 20th century education system that churns out graduates without any current market skills at all, murder of police officers, 4% annual population growth with about 20% of the population living on less than a dollar per day, wars all around the neighbourhood, one would think that our government has sufficient priorities other than getting concerned about how people dress or who they are sleeping with.

Our government seems to be majoring in the minors while minoring in the majors. No wonder the citizens look at politicians as just greedy and corrupt individuals seeking to enrich themselves and perpetuate their stay in power. The law of unintended consequences did not take long to kick in. Ladies were being attacked, humiliated, undressed and robbed in downtown Kampala for wearing “Mini-skirts”, due to the ambiguous and broad description of indecent dressing advanced by the Minister of Ethics (who is a Catholic priest by the way) and exacerbated by our media which either mistakenly or out of sheer irresponsibility conveyed the wrong idea that the “Mini-skirt” had been outlawed. It took the efforts of women activists, the Honourable Speaker of Parliament and The Prime Minister to curb the abhorrent mob justice that was being committed against innocent ladies in the name of ‘enforcing’ a ridiculous law.

There was no civic education or civic engagement about these laws. Hours after signing the Anti-Homosexuality Bill into Law, reports were circulating around social media of men living in the same house, some siblings or just friends, being threatened with violence by self-righteous bigots accusing them of being gay and therefore out of order. One can only hope that with time, we will not witness the same witch hunt as seen in Nigeria where suspected gay people were beaten and their homes burnt by mobs without a shred of evidence. 

While other countries in the region get serious on Infrastructure projects, education, health care and ICT, Uganda is training MPs on how to use iPads (which by the way, come with user manuals), urging the president to stand unopposed for a fifth term, passing redundant laws and protecting the corrupt from prosecution.

The passing of the Anti-Homosexuality Bill and subsequent signing by the President has sparked off a series of threats of and actual Aid cuts to the country. Norway, Denmark and Netherlands have announced such cuts to a tune of more than $30 Million to Uganda in budget and sector support. The US is also apparently reviewing their Aid as well. Personally, I think this is absurd. It is ridiculous to punish an ordinary citizen on the street for the sins of their government which they may not have a direct hand in. Why should a mother in a rural area of Uganda lose her life while giving birth all because the government of her nation has refused to accept gay rights? How are the two related? Why should a child contract HIV/AIDS at birth and be condemned to death because of the actions of a few politicians who have decided not to soothe the egos of their fellow leaders in the West? I stand to be corrected but I am convinced that it is a skewed idea to peg foreign aid that helps real people with real problems to the petty actions of corrupt politicians. Unless of course aid is just a foreign policy tool that works as leverage to hold African nations hostage to assume positions they do not agree with.

If that’s the case, then how do the providers of aid differ from those who had initially proposed to kill the gay people? The west needs to find better ways to convince Africans to accept gays. Otherwise, issuing threats will only create more Zimbabwe cases. With all the years of no aid and sanctions, Robert Mugabe is still president and Zimbabweans are still suffering without any hope of democratisation. So what did the sanctions and aid cuts achieve? The Aid cuts will only serve to strengthen patriotism, African pride and will fuel further hatred for the west will also complicate the strategic regional security partnerships. I hope the west is smart enough to realize this.

Ugandans: Selling our souls to the highest bidder

The ongoing Northern Corridor Summit of EAC heads of state and their ministers is of special significance as we look to fast track the East African Integration process.  The Infrastructural advancements planned including the single customs territory, the single tourism visa, the national ID projects, NCR and arguably the most ambitious project East Africa has ever seen, the Standard Gauge Railway worth a whooping $14bn, once fully operational are expected to launch our takeoff into middle class economies.

Unfortunately, in this country, all this talk and vision is only familiar to a few elites here in Kampala. The president may have talked about it in a few upcountry trips but there’s no real sense that we are moving together as a country on this. This is precisely due to the wide and growing gap between the rich, smartphone-wielding middle class here in the city and the rural and gullible, countryside poor who constitute the largest percentage of our population. This is the population that gets targeted during election time, and more recently, even way before.

This is because it is increasingly becoming clear to many of us that elections are only just a ritual that we engage in every five years, pumping in billions of our taxes but with no significant outcome. Fewer and a reducing number of Ugandans believe in the polls to shape their destiny. If you vote for someone and they win, there’s negligible to zero chances that they will work in your interests or the interests of the general community. MPs are loyal to the parties they subscribe to (and their leaders), more than they are to the voters.  As soon as they are elected, they begin planning for the next election and how to pay back the money the used in funding their campaign. This prompts them to give their loyalty to the sponsoring parties and money lenders. This pattern can be clearly seen once you look closely at how they conduct their business on and off the floor of parliament. 

As they continue to pass ridiculous and unenforceable laws, pick up huge salaries, live large, and more recently, kneel down begging the president to contest unopposed in the party for a fifth term, MPs and their leader continue to alienate their electorate and are increasingly seeming oblivious of the people’s plight. As such, people have resorted to selling their souls to the highest bidder.

There are things that are outside the reach of mere democratic mandates. We acquiesce in decisions of governments we did not vote for not because we accept the rule of majority voting but much more importantly because we know that majorities do not confer absolute power. There’s always need to consult the electorate. Voting one in power is not a blank cheque to do whatever they want.

It is near certain that none of our current crop of politicians in this country will advocate and work towards increasing our chances of putting food on our tables, availing medicines in hospitals, creating employment for the 40,000 or so graduates that get churned into the job market every year or improve the road network in the so called remote areas to connect produce to the market.

Amidst all this government arrogance and disregard of the plight of the common man, people have resorted to begging. Cash handouts in envelopes and sacks, rewarding allegiance with appointments in public offices regardless of one’s performance have become the order of the day. People do not look at their leaders as those who can facilitate transformation in the economy to improve the lives of the people they lead. Instead, they look at them as a means to get their next meal, get a job fix in some organisation or as potential sources of grants. The focus of people has shifted from the long term vision and where they want to go as a country in future, to how they achieve their immediate needs.

The dangers posed by the rampant abuse of power under the guise of democracy (majority) are increasingly becoming clear and will ultimately affect our kids and their kids, however much we might like to rhetorically suggest otherwise when government does things that displease us.

It is this way of life that led us to see a whole 48 percent of eligible voters not going to vote in the 2011 elections, because they don’t believe that their vote will change anything for the better. After receiving cash handouts, soap, sugar and other incentives that meet their immediate needs, the long term needs can be left to God. For a population that lives hand to mouth, you can agree with me that elections don’t really mean much. This is why I can say with absolute certainty, that whoever has the fattest bank account will win elections in Uganda. It’s a shame!

An Open Letter to President Obama from Uganda

Your Excellency,

I have read your statement on the Anti-Homosexuality Bill that is soon to be enacted into law in my country in Uganda and I respect you for this response. I am however taken aback by the kind of double standards that you and your administration continue to shamelessly portray in diplomatic relations with other countries especially in Africa and the Middle East. I will focus on Uganda for now. 

Your statement opens with how the “United States has consistently stood for the protection of fundamental freedoms and universal human rights. We believe that people everywhere should be treated equally, with dignity and respect, and that they should have the opportunity to reach their fullest potential, no matter who they are or whom they love.“ I fully support this virtue and applaud you for it. What I have an issue with is your country’s continuous habit of applying it as and when it benefits you or your PR driven agendas.

Two years ago, the EU and other donor countries responded to Massive theft of donor money in the Office of the Prime Minister of Uganda, meant for development and rehabilitation projects in poverty stricken former war ravaged areas. They froze their funds and demanded reforms and reimbursement of the stolen funds. As usual, we the taxpayers picked the tab. Your country kept silent about it as it has about other high level corruption scandals in this country. 

Since the 2011 Elections, the Uganda Police under the NRM administration has constantly harassed members of the opposition with “preventive arrest”, an obnoxious act of the colonial days, spraying them with tear gas, poisoned pepper spray, denying them the freedom of assembly that is clearly stated in the constitution. The government has cut off all funding channels for other political parties in the country. Last year, the ruling party pushed through a ridiculous law in Public Order Management Law and the president assented to it to primarily clamp down the activities of the opposition leaders and their supporters. To this day, your country has been silent about all these injustices. 

So Mr. President, forgive me if I don’t take you seriously when you say that your country stands for the protection of fundamental freedoms and Universal Human rights. Allow me to say that you kept silent because of the strategic security and militaristic relationship between your country and mine, which ordinary Ugandans and Americans alike know nothing about.

I personally have my reservations about the Anti-Gay Bill but I will keep them to myself. On principle, allow me not to take you seriously when you say that the enactment of this legislation will complicate your valued relationship with Uganda. Let’s be honest, the relationship will only get complicated when Uganda refuses to agree to fight your wars on your behalf as we see in Somalia, South Sudan and CAR. That’s the only possible reason. Else, Uganda will remain a sovereign dictatorship and you will do nothing about it. So do not pretend to care about oppressed Ugandans when you have watched on for years as worse injustices have happened. The Gay issue should be as sensitive as the battering, wrongful arrest and harassing of any dissenting voices in the country by the state machinery. Unless of course you are implying that the rights of Gay people are a special kind of rights as compared to the straight people. Rights are rights and they should be protected and respected across the board. 

Be informed that the same Uganda Police Force which you kept quiet about as they carried on their excesses against political dissent in this country is the same police that will be hunting down the Gays as soon as the bill is assented to. Maybe now you realize you should have spoken earlier. Good luck on trying to intimidate the president into not signing the bill.

(The Author of this Letter prefers to keep Anonymous. This Blog is privileged with the opportunity to publish it.) 

Very Grim Times for Politics in Uganda

The mess that is Uganda’s politics couldn’t have played out any better in the past week. Sadly, it is more likely than not that we shall sail further in the murky waters in the short and medium term as a country. The youthful elite in this country have been accused of leaving active politics to the old guard while preferring the arguably less messy corporate world. I’m compelled to think maybe they are justified considering the situation.

A fortnight ago, this column reported and went on to question the choice of Leader of opposition in parliament that was appointed by the FDC president, cautioning about the likely fallout in the party and other repercussions. On Wednesday 12^th, the new LoP together with the party president announced their new Shadow Cabinet. I remember reading through the list and wondering if “reviewing” opposition leadership in parliament meant the same thing as “reshuffling” them. Only a few people like the Shadow Attorney General and Defence Minister had retained their positions. Everybody else had been switched around while others were dropped in a move that the leadership described as ‘rebranding the party from militaristic ways’.

I was not shocked to read a few minutes later, that two MPs, Hon. Odonga Otto and Hon. Odo Tayebwa had already rejected their appointments citing lack of competence in the respective positions of appointment and not being consulted before hand. Mr. Odonga Otto had made it clear before that he was only interested in the coveted position of heading the Public Accounts Committee (PAC) and nothing else. While I appreciate that not everyone could get what they wanted, I think the new FDC leadership made mistakes of a fundamental magnitude that could further strain the already shaky confidence in their capabilities. Take for Instance, the appointment the Secretary General Ms. Alice Alaso to head PAC. Her interest in the LoP position notwithstanding, it was a ridiculous appointment. Alice has a background of a teacher and social worker as she clearly pointed out in her rather shocking rejection of the appointment as well. How is such a background supposed to make her competent to head PAC, a position that requires accounting and dealing with numbers and figures? This is one of the many examples that seem to point out that the appointments were not made on a basis of competence and ability to deliver but had other considerations, possibly ego-centric ones. The outgoing leader of opposition, a very strong member of the party and former candidate for the party presidency is understood to have declined any appointment to the shadow cabinet and preferred to go back to the back bench.

Kampala Woman MP, Nabillah Ssempala, who had criticized the appointment of Hon. Wafula Oguttu as LoP and earlier had allegations of an impending crossover to the ruling party hanging over her shoulder, seemed rather delighted after being appointed Shadow Minister for Information. She made a sudden U-turn and pledged to work for the party. All this disgruntlement, U-turns and rejections point us to one direction: the impending demise of FDC as the strongest opposition party in Uganda. I predicted a breakaway faction before the 2016 Elections but at this rate, it might be coming sooner than that. It is increasingly becoming clear that some members are in it for self-aggrandizement but also, that the new leadership’s rebranding campaign is backfiring quite fast.

Enter the NRM retreat in Kyankwanzi. The drama was unprecedented. A retreat that was to review the manifesto, track progress and churn a way forward ended up revolving around succession for the president. A lot of talk had been making rounds about the Prime Minister Mr. Amama Mbabazi habouring strong interests in the presidency for 2016. It all started with a carefully written and purportedly well researched article in The Independent Magazine last year that the Premier was doing serious mobilisation within and outside the party in preparation for his presidential bid. The premier initially denied the allegations but with time, constant pressure and unceasing debate on the issue from the media, he began to employ the softer response of contesting only if he is chosen by the party.

The President kept mum about the issue but as usual, he is always orchestrating something behind the scenes. The man doesn’t take any threat to his power lightly. The opposition knows that more than anybody else. The retreat has made known to us the carefully executed plan to ensure Mr. Mbabazi has no chance to contest against his boss. The so-called “Nanjing Group”, owing their name to the upscale hotel where the plan is alleged to have been hatched, led by youthful MP Evelyn Anite literally blackmailed the Premier into signing away his right to challenge the president. By making every MP sign an illegal document backing Museveni as the sole candidate in the upcoming election, the group has cut off any chances for anyone else to be a serious challenger. However undemocratic and ridiculous the action is, it has produced an effective tool to curb any opposition to the president from within the party. Who said we are a democratic country anyway? Democracy and rule of law in Uganda are just a sham. The past three elections in this country have always been just a norm with no effect on the status quo, especially the presidency, to the extent that about 48% of eligible voters didn’t bother to participate in the last election because there’s an increasing belief that their decisions can not cause change. So why would we expect the ruling party to use democratic means?

I feel sorry for Mr. Mbabazi if his ambitions are true but I feel sorrier for Uganda’s politics. With an opposition totally devoid of a clear ideology to drive Uganda out of the mess we have been in for the past nearly three decades of this presidency and with cracks all over their party structures, I shudder at the thought of five more years of NRM rule after 2016. These are very grim times for Uganda and the worst is yet to come.

Africa: It could get worse before it gets better.

Last year climaxed on a very bleak note for Africa, and consequently, so has the New Year begun. Turmoil has engulfed almost every region of this well-endowed continent but is more pronounced in the Great Lakes Region and surrounding areas. The war in the DR Congo, which has its original bearings in the 20th century, seemed to have come close to a conclusion when MONUSCO, equipped with a new mandate, effectively overran the M23 rebel strongholds in the Eastern jungles of that country, only for us to see further attacks from the rather ambiguous M18 and another groups that the government called “terrorists” who attacked key installations in Kinshasa on December, 30th.

Central African Republic is on the brink of Genocide according to the UN. The religious conflict in that country doesn’t seem to abate, despite French and Rwandese boots on the ground, a new leader and lots of aid resources from Europe. Since Michel Djotodia and his Seleka Islamist rebels seized power in March last year through a coup forcing former president Francois Bozize into exile, the country has been plunged in religious killings that have claimed thousands of lives. Horrible and gruesome acts of murder by the Christian anti-balaka militia in revenge for the atrocities of the Muslim Seleka rebels range from cutting off men’s genitals and putting them in their mouths to cannibalism to mass parade lynching of young Muslim children to death. I don’t think Rwanda’s 1994 Genocide compares to such absolute horror. 

In South Sudan, a coup attempt, as the government put it, on December 15th from within the ranks of the presidential guard has escalated into a full blown war which experts and observers alike consider to be politically motivated but underlined by ethnic tensions. Disagreements within the ruling party of Africa’s newest state have degenerated into near ethnic cleansing pitting the Dinka tribe of President Salva Kiir against the Nuer tribe of his erstwhile deputy Riek Machar. The almost two months old conflict has already claimed thousands of lives according to some accounts. Uganda rushed to send in troops to prevent the toppling of Salva Kiir but ended up engaging in active combat against Machar’s rebels while peace negotiations under the IGAD framework ensued in Addis Ababa. The tangible results of these efforts, we are yet to see. 

There’s instability in northern Nigeria and Mali caused by terrorist activities in the region considered to be offshoots of AQIM (Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb). Egypt and Libya are suffering the unintended consequences of sudden regime change as a result of the Arab Spring. They are learning the hard way how difficult it is to swim the murky waters of transition to democracy after a long spell of authoritarian rule. Egypt had turned the page by electing a civilian Islamist leader in democratic elections but that was short-lived. The “almighty” army seized power from him in what many western leaders deliberately refused to call a coup as that’s what it was. 

Other relatively stable countries in the regions continue to increasingly show signs of fragility. Anything could happen in the next few months. For example, the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in their recent report on fragile states consider all East African countries as fragile apart from Tanzania. They go further to include Chad, Eritrea, Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia and Somalia on this list. The main drivers of this conflict in this region include Conflict minerals and fire arms spilling over borders, armed groups and refugees that spread instability. However, key governance deficiencies and increasing poverty also contribute to making these countries prone to falling victim of instability. 

Poor people who feel excluded from accessing national resources and weak or non-existent institutions to address their grievances tend to inspire lack of confidence in governments. The continuous dissatisfaction with the status quo will always keep people on the edge. This will ultimately culminate into a fragile state that can go awry at the slightest provocation and an enabling environment. Several leaders in Africa have a tendency of rendering institutions useless in search for absolute power or turning them into their personal stooges especially the army and the police. This is a recipe for disaster as was evidenced in the Kenya Post Election violence of 2007/8. 

In the last few decades, there have been conflicts in Sierra Leone, DRC, Uganda, Sudan, Burundi, Rwanda, Mali, Libya, Eritrea, Guinea Bissau, Kenya et al. The major characteristic that all these countries have had in common is weak institutions and “strong man” rule. All this “cosmetic democracy” we keep seeing as a trend in Africa has failed to work. Leaders have constantly undermined constitutionalism and rule of law by corrupting all institutions of justice and accountability and rendering them useless, rewarding political allies and friends while further alienating opponents, shamelessly plundering public resources at the expense of providing social services to the population, suffocation of civil society, activists and the media among others. All, but a few, African countries have been often found lacking in effective governance and protection of Universal Human rights and freedoms. 

As long as this trend continues, the idea of a peaceful Africa will remain just that. Many of us thought that the days of coups and military overthrow were left in the 1980’s and 1990’s. The recent years have proved us wrong. There has been an astronomical growth in population, high and increasing rate of unemployment, social exclusion by the ruling class, discovery of oil, rapid urbanization. All these create a ripe environment for instability if our countries do not go to work. Africa Development Bank has announced a planned investment of $1.5 billion in fragile states over the next three years to strengthen governance, job creation and streamline extractive industries. Of course this is good news as many studies have shown a clear link between conflict and inequality, unemployment and poor governance.

Countries must reform institutions, ensure transparency, create jobs and restore public confidence. The apprehension about transition of power must be eliminated and people need to believe that when they go to the ballot, their vote counts. Inclusiveness in government must be enhanced and national resources distributed equally among the populace. The Leaders in the East African region and the great lakes have a uniquely important role to play. Instability has a way of spilling over across borderlines. If the reforms are not embraced, the “coup contagion” is not very far from the door and the situation could get worse before it gets better.

Is Wafula Oguttu the best choice for LoP?

On Friday, 31^st Jan, the FDC party President Mr. Mugisha Muntu nominated Bukhooli MP Phillip Wafula Oguttu as the new Leader of Opposition in Parliament (LoP). By the end of the day, it was confirmed the former party spokesperson would be the new LoP. To many, it came as a shocking surprise considering that Phillip wasn’t even in the running to begin with. The party president had for a long while been expected to change the Opposition leadership in parliament not only because he is supposed to review it on a bi-annual basis but also because of the tensions that have rocked the FDC party since last year’s contested presidential elections.

Many observers watching from the sidelines, including yours truly, would have placed a bet on the choice of the new LoP to be between Abdu Katuntu, Cecilia Ogwal and maybe Alice Alaso. This expectation is widely based on the length of their experience and tenacity in legislative practice, personal capabilities and ability to withstand the pressure and bullying from the NRM without having their backs broken or their commitment to good policies and good governance warped. But I guess the president of the largest opposition party in the Ugandan parliament had other ideas and considerations.

As expected when such a choice is made, many questions continue to linger about the wisdom and the underpinning reasons of appointing Phillip especially considering that he has been in parliament for only two or so years. For a party president that claims to seek reconciliation and reuniting the party after a contested election result, one would have thought Mugisha Muntu would start by appointing an acceptable choice of LoP. But sources indicate that the former party spokesperson himself was surprised when his name was announced and he walked out of the meeting. He later had to be convinced to accept the blessing from the party president. Is that really the kind of person that is expected to counter the cunning and outright bullying of the Government leadership in parliament when the numbers are against his kind?

Muntu is quoted to have argued that he made his choice to bridge the gap between the Nandala Mafabi camp and his own since Phillip belong to the other side. He further adds that Phillip commands respect and is not easy to compromise. With all due respect to Muntu, you don’t “bridge a gap” by removing your opponent from their position and promoting someone several steps their junior both in terms of party hierarchy and legislative experience. If you do so, let it be someone whom both camps (and the party members) find as an acceptable choice not a questionable one as in this case. Several MPs seem to believe that with Phillip, the NRM will enjoy a walk in the park. I’m compelled to agree with them. And it is on this matter that I feel it is going to be a tough challenge for Phillip because to succeed as LoP, one needs all the support he can get from his fellow opposition MPs. I don’t foresee Phillip getting this support considering the same MPs from whom the shadow cabinet will be selected are already questioning his appointment and capabilities. And a couple of them who see themselves as better choices, more capable and who wield more influence in parliament because of their debating skills and generally better experience, will probably be disgruntled. Ms. Cecilia Ogwal, one of the most senior MPs in parliament and until Friday, a leading contender for the LoP positon, was appointed the party chief whip. If she doesn’t choose to eat humble pie and act mature, it will be a disastrous two years ahead for Phillip. 

Nandala Mafabi may have had his mishaps in his management style as LoP, preferring to use stick more often than carrot while dealing with the shadow cabinet and other opposition MPs, but I believe he was and still would be a better choice compared to Phillip, the other better choices in Katuntu and Cecilia notwithstanding. If Muntu made the choice because he wants to reconcile the party, I think that’s even the wrong reason. The choice of LoP should be premised more on what they are capable of considering the tasks ahead of them in parliament than on what they will do on the party stage. The squabbles in the party should be addressed by the party leadership and structures such as the NEC because they are certainly not the responsibility of the LoP even if the side he chooses to take may have an influence.

Then there’s the elephant in the room that no one in the current FDC leadership wants to face; the possibility of a breakaway faction. It is not far fetched considering we have already seen Betty Kamya leaving and forming her own party. Mafabi has swallowed a bitter pill since losing the party presidency to Muntu in November 2012. He has even gone ahead to reconcile and issue statements of “no beef” between Muntu and him. And on Friday, he is quoted to have said that he’s ready to work with the new LoP.  Well, personally I don’t usually take politicians’ words at face value. Even people close to Mafabi have always said he doesn’t take losing too well. But that’s okay. Afterall, who does?

The situation though, may take an interesting turn especially after February 18^th when he is supposed to welcome his “new boss” Phillip in parliament. Some of Mafabi’s supporters in the party have already announced that they will follow him wherever he takes them. This is not a good indication. It means that even if Mafabi may have made peace with himself, his supporters haven’t and they may compel him to leave the party due to “unfair treatment”. And he might accept because he “needs” them if his “future plans” are to materialise. I’m not a prophet of doom, but if this happens, it shall mark the beginning of the end of FDC as we know it. Until then, we keep an even closer look on things as they unfold.