Is Wafula Oguttu the best choice for LoP?

On Friday, 31^st Jan, the FDC party President Mr. Mugisha Muntu nominated Bukhooli MP Phillip Wafula Oguttu as the new Leader of Opposition in Parliament (LoP). By the end of the day, it was confirmed the former party spokesperson would be the new LoP. To many, it came as a shocking surprise considering that Phillip wasn’t even in the running to begin with. The party president had for a long while been expected to change the Opposition leadership in parliament not only because he is supposed to review it on a bi-annual basis but also because of the tensions that have rocked the FDC party since last year’s contested presidential elections.

Many observers watching from the sidelines, including yours truly, would have placed a bet on the choice of the new LoP to be between Abdu Katuntu, Cecilia Ogwal and maybe Alice Alaso. This expectation is widely based on the length of their experience and tenacity in legislative practice, personal capabilities and ability to withstand the pressure and bullying from the NRM without having their backs broken or their commitment to good policies and good governance warped. But I guess the president of the largest opposition party in the Ugandan parliament had other ideas and considerations.

As expected when such a choice is made, many questions continue to linger about the wisdom and the underpinning reasons of appointing Phillip especially considering that he has been in parliament for only two or so years. For a party president that claims to seek reconciliation and reuniting the party after a contested election result, one would have thought Mugisha Muntu would start by appointing an acceptable choice of LoP. But sources indicate that the former party spokesperson himself was surprised when his name was announced and he walked out of the meeting. He later had to be convinced to accept the blessing from the party president. Is that really the kind of person that is expected to counter the cunning and outright bullying of the Government leadership in parliament when the numbers are against his kind?

Muntu is quoted to have argued that he made his choice to bridge the gap between the Nandala Mafabi camp and his own since Phillip belong to the other side. He further adds that Phillip commands respect and is not easy to compromise. With all due respect to Muntu, you don’t “bridge a gap” by removing your opponent from their position and promoting someone several steps their junior both in terms of party hierarchy and legislative experience. If you do so, let it be someone whom both camps (and the party members) find as an acceptable choice not a questionable one as in this case. Several MPs seem to believe that with Phillip, the NRM will enjoy a walk in the park. I’m compelled to agree with them. And it is on this matter that I feel it is going to be a tough challenge for Phillip because to succeed as LoP, one needs all the support he can get from his fellow opposition MPs. I don’t foresee Phillip getting this support considering the same MPs from whom the shadow cabinet will be selected are already questioning his appointment and capabilities. And a couple of them who see themselves as better choices, more capable and who wield more influence in parliament because of their debating skills and generally better experience, will probably be disgruntled. Ms. Cecilia Ogwal, one of the most senior MPs in parliament and until Friday, a leading contender for the LoP positon, was appointed the party chief whip. If she doesn’t choose to eat humble pie and act mature, it will be a disastrous two years ahead for Phillip. 

Nandala Mafabi may have had his mishaps in his management style as LoP, preferring to use stick more often than carrot while dealing with the shadow cabinet and other opposition MPs, but I believe he was and still would be a better choice compared to Phillip, the other better choices in Katuntu and Cecilia notwithstanding. If Muntu made the choice because he wants to reconcile the party, I think that’s even the wrong reason. The choice of LoP should be premised more on what they are capable of considering the tasks ahead of them in parliament than on what they will do on the party stage. The squabbles in the party should be addressed by the party leadership and structures such as the NEC because they are certainly not the responsibility of the LoP even if the side he chooses to take may have an influence.

Then there’s the elephant in the room that no one in the current FDC leadership wants to face; the possibility of a breakaway faction. It is not far fetched considering we have already seen Betty Kamya leaving and forming her own party. Mafabi has swallowed a bitter pill since losing the party presidency to Muntu in November 2012. He has even gone ahead to reconcile and issue statements of “no beef” between Muntu and him. And on Friday, he is quoted to have said that he’s ready to work with the new LoP.  Well, personally I don’t usually take politicians’ words at face value. Even people close to Mafabi have always said he doesn’t take losing too well. But that’s okay. Afterall, who does?

The situation though, may take an interesting turn especially after February 18^th when he is supposed to welcome his “new boss” Phillip in parliament. Some of Mafabi’s supporters in the party have already announced that they will follow him wherever he takes them. This is not a good indication. It means that even if Mafabi may have made peace with himself, his supporters haven’t and they may compel him to leave the party due to “unfair treatment”. And he might accept because he “needs” them if his “future plans” are to materialise. I’m not a prophet of doom, but if this happens, it shall mark the beginning of the end of FDC as we know it. Until then, we keep an even closer look on things as they unfold.