The M23 rebels in DRC might be all but a spent force, if I may borrow the words of the UN envoy in DRC, but the war and the general problems of Congo are far from over. After four days of heavy shelling and fighting in the Kivu province, the Congolese army backed by the UN intervention brigade looked to have emerged victors as the M23 abandoned most of their positions, the latest being the Bunagana stronghold on the Ugandan border with Congo. Foreseeing a breakdown of the peace talks in Kampala, the UN Security Council authorised an intervention force composed of mainly South Africa and Tanzanian armed forces to launch an offensive on the M23 rebels, the fruits of which are what the UN envoy seems to refer to in the above mentioned statement. Congolese soldiers could be seen jubilating and some were quoted saying they will have a feast to celebrate their great triumph over the rebels that have been a thorn in their back for a couple of years now.
Anyone who knows the history and the geopolitical situation surrounding the crisis in Congo would not be so fast to congratulate the Congolese forces and their UN underpinnings. From the days of Colonialism, Congolese have never seen stability in their country. In a country with a total area of 905,600 square miles and a population of over 70 million, it is hard to exert far reaching authority to every part with hardly any functioning institutions and infrastructure worth talking about. In my opinion, this is where DRC’s problems start from.
All the governments Congo has had in the last 50 years have been in the least, dysfunctional. Right from Prime minister Patrice Lumumba in 1960, who inherited a country left deeply divided by the Belgians which was followed by civil war and temporary fragmentation of the country and led to his murder with alleged complicity of US and Belgium, to the dictatorial days of coup master Mobutu Sese Seko, and on to Kabila the father and the son, absentee governance and plunder have been the order of the day in the mineral rich nation.
With this situation prevailing in a country that boasts of the rarest of minerals and the recent discovery of Oil, the black Gold in the Albertine region, Congo remains in a perilous situation. World powers and Neighbours alike, want a piece of the mineral cake. With an army too weak and too corrupt to even safeguard a small percentage of the minerals and definitely not incentivized enough to even protect the citizens, the result is the anarchy we see every day in Congo. The government is often too weak or simply not willing to provide even the most basic of needs to the citizens. The lack of these basic necessities has led citizens to illegal procurement of guns to protect themselves. The guy with the biggest guns is the one to collect taxes from mining companies and traders to be able to send his child to school across the Ugandan border. The absence of health facilities, schools, roads, et al has driven Congolese to the brink especially in the Eastern region. With the Kinshasa government, nearly as far away as London is from Moscow, making mining deals with the Chinese and pocketing all the proceeds, the people had no choice but to resort to self-rule.
For a very long time, there was no significant authority felt in the Eastern part of DRC, specifically the mineral-rich Kivu province. The two wars in Congo in the 1990’s which sucked in up to seven African countries, both started in Kivu. M23 came in to stand in the gap. And it is not the only group that had their base in this province. The Mai Mai, an umbrella term for several armed groups led by war lords and tribal leaders, which were set up to defend their local areas of interest in the absence of the Kinshasa government also reside here. They own large chunks of land rich in Gold, Tin and Coltan, from which they derive their livelihood. And in typical Congo style, if they can provide security and a few services to the residents, then that’s all the legitimacy they need. The Mai Mai have been an active participant in all the wars in Kivu.
Then there’s the FDLR, the relatively strong Rwandan 1994 genocide perpetrators. These have been a source of friction between DRC and Rwanda because the Rwandese hate that Congo gave the FDLR a nice welcome after committing atrocities in Rwanda. Analysts have observed over the years, that Rwanda has never been fully convinced that FDLR is totally unable to launch another attack on its territory. And this is what keeps Rwanda keen on the happenings in DRC.
In the wake of an impending weakening of the M23 rebels, other armed groups are springing up to take a stand against the Congolese government. The most recent being the M18, which has displaced and caused thousands of Congolese to flee into the northern Uganda district of Koboko.
The UN intervention force may have helped the Congolese army to win back Eastern DRC for now. But how long can they stay? How sustainable is this victory and what happens when they leave? Is the Congolese army strong enough to maintain peace in that region? If not, are we going to see an occupation by the South African and Tanzanian forces? With Tanzania being seen as having gone against the general position of the International Committee of the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR) of talking peace in Kampala instead of combat, what are the likely effects of this seeming betrayal on its relationship with its Neighbours and the outcome of the war in Congo? All these are questions whose answers are yet to be established.
What can be done to resolve this war?
I wish to suggest two options. One being to let the war play out until a victor emerges. I know this sounds extremely evil. But war, though with its evils has a way of establishing order if given a chance to play out until either a decisive winner emerges or until both parties are exhausted are they decide to seat on a round table and discuss peaceful means of resolving their conflict. The hope of succeeding militarily must seem impossible for both parties to be attracted to the idea of talking peace and establishing a lasting resolution. What we have seen in Congo is continuous interference by other parties into the conflict. Cease-fires and armistices have frequently been imposed under the aegis of the Security Council in order to halt fighting. Peace talks that never materialize are the order of the day. The truth is, during these ceasefires, the factions are busy rearming and re-strategizing. This creates an impression that they can win and protracts the conflict even longer, especially when the ceasefire ends, as it usually does.
The other option to solve this conflict would be to split Congo into three or four autonomous states. This idea looks set to bring an end to the war in Sudan. Though with its challenges, I believe it could bring lasting peace in Congo. Kinshasa is so far from Kivu that its authority cannot be felt, let alone recognized. Ironically, Rwanda and Uganda probably have more players in authority in Eastern DRC than the Kinshasa government. The Mineral rich Kivu should be allowed to break off a government they do not recognize and appreciate, and be left to form their own state. Then we can work towards establishing democracy, building institutions and repatriating former combatants in that area without worrying about an absentee government that only shows up to extract truck-loads of minerals without caring as much to build a proper road.
Either way, a lasting solution in DRC won’t come from outside interventionists. The UNSC passed a resolution authorizing the intervention brigade quoting an ambiguous or probably nonexistent clause of Chapter 7 of the UN Charter. This happened while the ICGLR was conducting peace talks in Kampala to try and resolve the conflict. Parties cannot have significant peace talks when one is busy being clobbered. It is a general feeling that the Kinshasa government is no longer interested in the talks having seen that they could win on the battle field, of course only with the UN force backing. The contrasting events happening on the battlefield and in Kampala need to be harmonised. With the political leaders set to meet in Pretoria on Monday, 4th November, we hope they will make a decisive resolution. The Congolese army may seem likely to win the battle. But the war in Congo is very far from over.
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